CDMA major Reliance Communications (RComm) is expected to make its pan-India GSM entry in the fourth quarter of the financial year ending 2009, according to a report brought out by Macquarie Research Equities. The report says that Reliance would have a GSM base of 12.8 million by March 2009, 21.6 million by March 2010 and 28.6 million by March 2011.
RComm, which has been allowed to offer GSM across the country once it gets the requisite spectrum, may not focus too much on the metros as the wireless penetration levels are already quite high in these cities. Rather, it seems to be dreaming big for places like Assam, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Orissa and Uttar Pradesh East, among some other parts of the country.
The Macquarie report estimates that by March 2009, the group would have negligible GSM subscriber base in the metros except in Kolkata, where it already has a GSM presence through Reliance Telecom. By March 2010, the subscriber base estimates of the company for GSM across metros are 0.1 million in Delhi, 0.2 million in Mumbai, 0.1 million in Chennai and 0.6 million in Kolkata. In the subsequent year, by March 2011, its GSM user base is estimated to go up to 0.2 million in Delhi, 0.3 million in Mumbai, 0.1 million in Chennai and 0.7 million in Kolkata.
Going by the projections, by March 2011, the company could have its highest GSM base in Bihar at around 5.4 million, to be followed by Assam at 3.1 million, and then Madhya Pradesh at 3 million. The other big targets for the group could include Orissa and West Bengal each at 2.3 million by March 2011.
Interestingly, most of the big GSM targets are from B and C circle towns and cities. From `A' circle cities, estimates suggest the company could have a little over 1 million GSM subscribers only in Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh by March 2011. In metros, RComm is not expected to have over 1 million GSM base anywhere by March 2011.
RComm got the government permission to offer nationwide GSM services under its existing unified access service (UAS) licence last Friday.
The group had made an application for nationwide GSM services in February 2006, when Dayanidhi Maran was the communications minister.
As of end of September, Reliance had 31.98 million CDMA users. RComm's sister concern, Reliance Telecom, operates GSM in eight circles and has an estimated 4 million subscribers, but the GSM figures have not been updated for some months